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Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke

ЦЕНА: БЕЗПЛАТНО
FORMAT: PDF EPUB MOBI
ДАТА НА ИЗЛИЗАНЕ: 2019
РАЗМЕР НА ФАЙЛА: 12,21
ISBN: 9780735216372
ЕЗИК: БЪЛГАРСКИ
АВТОР: Annie Duke

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Описание:

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

...its decision making from a different angle ... 【Thinking in Bets】 Portfolio • Цена | Ciela.com ... .. It's written by Annie Duke, who was a professional poker play (the only woman to have won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship), and now is a speaker and consultant on decision strategy.. Her base premise is this: Decisions are not like chess - they are like poker. Annie Duke, a near Ph.D. in cognitive psychology and a renowned poker player, shares what she learned "in smoky poker rooms" (and from academic research) about decision-making in general. Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisio ... Book Review: Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions ... ... . Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (Portfolio/Penguin, 2018) is itself a smart book for the reader who isn't comfortable with thinking probabilistically in an ... Thinking in bets is a quick way to destroy false beliefs, and it also acts as a precursor to form strong opinions. Thinking in Bets is very likely to make us realise that there is always a degree of uncertainty, that we are generally less sure than we think we were, and that practically nothing is black and white, 0% or 100%. Thinking In Bets Summary "Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them." Poker like life, is a decision about an uncertain future. Like in poker, there are two things that determine how our lives turn out - quality of our decisions and luck. Thinking in Bets — 0.0 от 5 (0) | SKU: BKFN0002840N. Издателство: Portfolio Penguin; Моля, обърнете внимание, че този продукт е с ограничена наличност в нашия склад или при доставчик. Възможно е към момента на завършване ... "Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about." ― Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Annie Duke Limited preview - 2018. Common terms and phrases. accuracy asked backcasting bad luck bad outcomes ball Bartman beliefs better decisions biased Bibliography and Recommendations blame brain cards chess choice create deci decision quality decision-making ... Thinking in bets triggers a more open-minded exploration of alternative hypotheses, of reasons supporting conclusions opposite to the routine of self-serving bias. We are more likely to explore the opposite side of an argument more often and more seriously - and that will move you closer to the truth. Annie Duke is an author and experienced corporate speaker and consultant on the behavior of decision making. In 2018, Annie's first book for general audiences, "Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" was released by Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Random House. Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Animated Book Summary - Duration: 4:44. Read And Grow 2,089 views. 4:44. Inside the mind of a master procrastinator | Tim Urban - Duration: 14:04. The world is an uncertain place, and according to Annie Duke, author or Thinking in Bets, we're better off accepting that we don't know for certain what will happen than to keep trying to guess the future.It's better to assign probabilities to different outcomes and adjust them as necessary rather than pick an outcome and doggedly defend that choice. On last week's podcast—alongside my co-host, Wesley Gray, the CEO of Alpha Architect—I had the privilege of interviewing retired professional poker player Annie Duke about her new best-selling book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Duke has an interesting background for a former professional poker player. Thinking in bets. It is helpful to first understand the nature and features of bets. A bet is a decision made with regards to an uncertain future. Bets have several features t...